The MCDP Challenge — Increasing Voter Turn-out In The Strongest Democratic Precincts in Montgomery County

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost Montgomery County to Donald Trump by only 893 votes (Out of 261, 989 votes cast).

We know that Democratic turn-out is the key for Democrats to win elections and the question for the Montgomery County Democratic Party is finding a way to increase turn-out in the strongest Democratic precincts in the county.

For the entire county, turn-out was 70.3%, but, Democratic precincts had a lower turn-out than the average and Republican precincts had a higher turn-out.

Hillary won 116 precincts of the 360 precincts in the county. The turn-out for these 116 precincts was 62.4%. 

Trump won 244 precincts and in Trump’s precincts the turn-out was 73.4%.

 

Comparing the Top 40 Precincts

The forty strongest Democratic precincts voted for Hillary at an amazing rate of 94.8% — Turn-out in these strong Democratic precincts was 62.1%

The forty strongest Republican precincts voted for Trump at a rate of 76.1%  — Turn-out for these strong Republican precincts was 74.7%

So, here is the calculation:  If the 40 strongest Democratic precincts had voted at the same turn-out percentage as the 40 strongest Republican precincts, 4,552 more votes would have been cast.in those strong Democratic precincts. If these additional votes also had matched the rate for this precincts — 94.8% for Hillary — the Democratic ticket would have had a net gain of 4078 votes.

The 40 Strongest Democratic Precincts (In Descending Order)

 

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