My friend, John, who is my age, 63, recently told me that he could count only two and one-half accomplishments in his life. Waa.
If the growth of virtue is linear, 2.5 units of virtue at age 63 can be expected to grow to 3.49 units of virtue by age 88. But if the growth of virtue is exponential, as shown in this graph, 2.5 units of virtue at age 63 will grow to 80 units by age 88.
I prepared this graph as an encouragement. Based on the wishful idea that under ideal conditions the growth of virtue can be exponential, if I assume that John’s virtue doubles every five years, I can figure if John has 2.5 units of virtue at age 63, then he had only .02 (two hundredths) units of virtue at age 28, .01 at age 23, etc. The good news is, if my estimate is correct, because of the power of exponential growth, by age 88, John will have over 80 units of virtue. Wow. When I last checked only 75 units of virtue are needed for sainthood.
According to Ray Kurzweil, “The Singularity Is Near,” humanity is now at the elbow of an exponential curve. We are on the brink of an stunning transformation of technology and science. After eons of evolution, humanity is at the point of an incredible explosion of accomplishment.
Kurzweil says that it took evolution about one billion years to develop DNA, but after DNA, progress was much faster. Evolution is exponential, as every stage of evolution builds on the previous stage. Finally, after billions of years of evolution, a J. S. Bach or an A. Einstein appears. According to Kurzweil, by 2045 — just a flicker of time into the future — computers will be billions of times more intelligent than the most intelligent of humans. Billions.
Kurzweil offers a breathtaking vision of the future. But, he doesn’t deal with this crucial question: Will humanity’s growth of virtue keep up with humanity’s stunning increases in scientific power?
Past human behavior predicts that, rather than being used to create a prosperous and peaceful world where everyone benefits, there is a good chance that humanity’s enormous new powers will be grabbed by a ruling oligarchy and used to suppress and control the masses.
Kurzweil shows that we are on the cusp of an incredible increase in the power of knowledge so that humanity, if we so choose, can create a heaven on earth. We can have a world in which every human enjoys prosperity, health, and happiness. The problem is, to a great degree, such a world is possible here today — 2011 — if we used the power and potential available for good, rather than war or oppression. It hardly seems reasonable that by the year 2045 humans will have sufficient virtue, sufficient humility to use that new power with wisdom.
What should our educational and political system look like — if the human race is to have a chance to deal with the challenges soon to be pressing upon us? What are the conditions that will allow the wisest and the best of us to emerge as leaders?
The hope for the future is not so much that technology can be transformed, but that humans can be transformed. Kurzweil predicts that the 100 years of the 21st century will have 20,000 years of scientific and technological progress. How will the virtue of humanity ever keep up? What Is The Educational System That Would Empower An Explosion Of Virtue?
See:
- “When Computers Are Billions Of Times More Intelligent Than Humans — What Should Be The Aims Of Education?”
- The Rise Of The Oligarchy — How The U.S. Became a Country “Of The Rich, By The Rich, For The Rich”
Why do we think virtue or humanity is connected, let alone enhanced by computation speed? If anything, modern life and its pace of social and technological change has greatly exaggerated the amount of fear and anxiety that we see in the world, while it has also increased drastically our ability to do much more harm to each other with less thinking and feeling to go into our decision. It is one thing if I fear the neighboring tribe and hit one of its members over the head with a rock, and another to react with waterboarding, drones, smart bombs and even nukes. Even domestically, think what is involved in the “gun rights/second amendment” debate. Today Christians celebrate Easter, validating the ultimate triumph of the man who wrote the sermon on the mount. Similar thoughts exist in one form or another in all the world’s major religions, and in the philosophies of those who reject some or all of the supernatural implications of those religions. However we are no closer to carrying out the sermon of the mount than we were on the original Easter. It was written two thousand years ago in a world without flush toilets and cell phones, although one that knew well empire, violence and abusive distributions of wealth and power. If the result of technological progress is the creation of Fox News, and more significantly, the creation of people willing to immerse themselves in it and be shaped by it, then where are we?