Samuelson Warns Of Impact Of Lost Wealth On Total Economy

Robert J. Samuelson of Newsweek notes that since September 2007, Americans’ personal wealth has dropped about $9 trillion and that a common estimate is that every dollar’s change in wealth causes people to change their spending by 5 cents. If this estimate is correct, he says, $450 billion ($9 trillion times .05) will be missing from the economy.

Samuelson warns that this big drop in consumer spending could have devastating effects. He says, “If the swing toward saving is too sharp, consumer spending wouldn’t just weaken; it would collapse…. Vehicle sales have already plunged. In 2005, they totaled almost 17 million; Global Insight’s 2009 projection is 12.2 million. And these problems feed on each other. Lower consumer spending depresses profits and stock prices, which corrodes confidence, further dampens spending, raises unemployment and increases loan defaults. Credit card losses could be the next big blow to financial institutions.”

Samuelson points out how wild stock prices have moved: the stock market has changed by 4% or more 25 out of the last 50 trading days (16 down, nine up). In the last 25 years, on average, such big one day swings in stock prices have only occured once per year. Says Samuelson, “We’ve gone from one a year to one every other day.” He says, “The wild stock swings confirm the palpable fear and uncertainty. … What terrifies Americans is the prospect that the slump will become much worse than average—and that the government has lost control of events.”

He writes, “The hyper-anxiety is not irrational pessimism, though it may prove unfounded. Every major episode of this crisis—from Bear Stearns’s failure to General Motors’ possible bankruptcy—has come as a surprise. Similarly, the crisis’s three main causes have repeatedly been underestimated: the burst housing ‘bubble’; fragile financial institutions; and a reversal of the ‘wealth effect.’ Of these, the last is least recognized.

Samuelson fears that the $9 trillion in missing wealth, will cause a “wealth effect,” that will further depress consumer activity, leading to even more problems in the economy.

He writes, “The case for a sizable economic “stimulus” package is that it would temporarily compensate for the erosion of consumer spending. But if the positive “wealth effect” is now giving way to a lasting negative or neutral “wealth effect”—as people try to replenish savings and offset lost wealth—then even a recovery would be sluggish. A new source of demand is needed to sustain faster growth. An obvious solution is for high-saving Asian countries, led by China, to consume and spend more so that their imports increase. Whether they have the political capacity to reduce their dependence on export-led growth is unclear.”

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Sidwell Friends School Nurtures Love Of Learning: “Let The Light Shine Out From All”

Sidwell Friends School is known as “the Harvard of Washington’s private schools.” The Obamas have decided to send their daughters, Sasha and Malia, to Sidwell. Chelsea Clinton and Al Gore III (the former Vice President’s son) graduated from the school. Joe Biden’s grandchildren are current students. President Nixon’s daughter attended it.

Tuition at Sidwell is $28,442 per year in the lower school, and $29,442 in the middle school. There are just over 1,000 students.

Thomas Sidwell

Thomas Sidwell

The school this year celebrated its 125th year. It was started in 1883 by a 24 year old Quaker named Thomas Sidwell. In its first class, there were eighteen students.

Thomas chose a great motto for the school: Eluceat Omnibus Lux, meaning, “Let the light shine out from all.” The motto alludes to the Quaker concept of inner light. And the idea of bringing out this inner light in its students has been a consistent part of the school’s philosophy.

There must be a sweet story that binds together the first fifty years of the school. In 1885, Thomas hired a beautiful recent Vassar grad,Frances Haldeman, to teach Greek, English and history. Romance bloomed and in 1887 Thomas and Francis were married.

For the next fifty years, Sidwell School became a team effort of Thomas and Francis. They literally devoted their lives to teaching, administrating and building Sidwell School. Francis passed away in 1934 and Thomas continued at the school until his death in 1936.

Francis  Haldeman Sidwell

Francis Haldeman Sidwell

The school’s web-site says, “We are guided by the Quaker belief in ‘That of God’ in each person. We seek academically talented students of diverse cultural, racial, religious and economic backgrounds. We offer these students a rich and rigorous interdisciplinary curriculum designed to stimulate creative inquiry, intellectual achievement and independent thinking in a world increasingly without borders. We encourage these students to test themselves in athletic competition and to give expression to their artistic abilities. We draw strength from silence—and from the power of individual and collective reflection. We cultivate in all members of our community high personal expectations and integrity, respect for consensus, and an understanding of how diversity enriches us, why stewardship of the natural world matters and why service to others enhances life. Above all, we seek to be a school that nurtures a genuine love of learning and teaches students ‘to let their lives speak.’”

Mr. Sidwell with one of his early classes

Mr. Sidwell with one of his early classes


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Workers Should Share In Prosperity Caused By Increased Productivity

Mitt Romney says, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” In a New York Times article he gives his view of what, after bankruptcy, a reconstituted automobile industry should look like.

Romney says of American auto makers, “First, their huge disadvantage in costs relative to foreign brands must be eliminated. That means new labor agreements to align pay and benefits to match those of workers at competitors like BMW, Honda, Nissan and Toyota. Furthermore, retiree benefits must be reduced so that the total burden per auto for domestic makers is not higher than that of foreign producers.”

Romney wants to downgrade the wages and benefits of workers, and claims that Walter Reuther, former head of UAW, once said to his father, George, “Getting more and more pay for less and less work is a dead-end street.”  And Mitt Romney proclaims, “You don’t have to look far for industries with unions that went down that road.”

But I would bet there is a second part to Reuther’s statement that Romney left out:  Getting less and less pay for more and more work is also a dead-end street.

Romney, in his editorial, fails to show any understanding of how much the auto industry has changed.  This report says:  “Union auto workers have already taken substantial hits on pay and benefits. For example, contracts negotiated in 2007 slashed wages for new workers by 50%. In addition, new workers will not be guaranteed any retiree health care benefits, and will not participate in the traditional defined-benefit pension plan. On top of that, the UAW agreed that the responsibility for health care benefits for existing retirees would be transferred from the auto companies to an independent trust, called a Voluntary Employee Benefits Association. Analysts now believe that the labor cost gap between the Detroit-based auto companies and the foreign transplants will be largely or completely eliminated by the end of the current contracts.”

Getting less and less pay for more and more productivity is not fair.  In Reuther’s time, each decade brought astounding new leaps in productivity to the auto industry.  Fewer and fewer man-hours were needed to build more and more valuable cars.  Reuther wanted his union members to share in the profit caused by increases in productivity.

How should productivity gains be shared is a huge question.  This article says, “While productivity is up nearly 20% since 2000, the real median hourly wage is up 3% overall and 1% for men, with none of this growth occurring over the three-and-a-half years since 2003. At the top of the wage scale—at the 95th percentile—real wages are up 9%.Real Wages Fail to Match a Rise in Productivity.”

And that article was printed in 2006.  The numbers would be even more dramatic now.  Since 2006, there have been enormous increases in wealth for the top 1% and even more dramatic increased in the top one-tenth of 1% of incomes.  The new wealth that has been created has not been shared.

A famous book, published in 1967 was Herman Kahn’s The Year 2000Kahn prophesied great leaps in productivity so that by 2000 we’d enjoy increased prosperty and, in addition, a 30-hour workweek, with 13 weeks of vacation per year, would be the norm. Kahn speculated how excess leisure time might be used.

Kahn got it right about a fantastic increase in productivity.  But his prophecy of universally shared prosperity was wrong.  Our democratic and free market system has failed to create a system where prosperity caused by increased productivity is reasonably shared.

An effective democracy would organize itself so that as the society’s wealth increases, all of its citizens benefit.  Our democracy is not working as it should.  At one time strong unions helped our democracy to be strong.  Romney and his friends may glory is the destruction of the unions, but they offer no vision by which average people have the opportunity to proper, they offer no vision as to how the increasing prosperity and productivity of this country can best be shared.

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