Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University calculates the turn-out rate for this election to be 62.6%. He says that this number might rise. This is the highest turn-out rate since 1964 when 62.8% of eligible voters participated in the Johnson / Goldwater contest.
McDonald’s chart shows four periods of turn-out for American elections, and he provides the following explanation:
The Founding Era (1789-1824) experienced the lowest turnout rates in American history. The 6.3% turnout in 1792 stands out at the absolute lowest, though the absence of voters is not terribly surprising given that George Washington ran unopposed. What explains lower turnout in other elections during this era is that state elections were often preeminent. During this period it was not uncommon for state legislatures to select directly the electors to the Electoral College. Furthermore, when the nation was still very much a rugged frontier, voting was not easy to do since it required people to travel far to vote at county courthouses.
The Party Machine Era (1828-1896) experienced the highest turnout rates in the nation’s history, routinely exceeding 80% nationally. In this period party competition was fierce within states and across the nation. The political machines created grassroots organizations to mobilize their supporters. While much of the folklore about this era focuses on the abuses of voting buying and other corruption, it is instructive to understand that modern political scientists regard these sorts of grassroots as the most effective means by which to get people to vote. The Republican’s effective “72 Hour Campaign” and Sen. Obama’s emphasis on building voter mobilization organizations have their roots in the person-to-person style of politics fashioned during this era.
The Segregation Era (1900-1948) is a play on words, as I mean segregation in the sense that the electorate was segregated into voters and non-voters by Progressive Era reforms that were designed to destroy the power of political machines. In the South, these same “reforms” were targeted to lower turnout among African-Americans. These reforms included, among others, secret ballot laws that made it difficult for the parties to monitor voting, and reward people for voting in the preferred manner. A secret ballot law became a de facto literacy test, which was also explicitly adopted by many states. They also included voter registration laws that were much more burdensome that today in that some states required voters to register as much as six months in advance of each election. It took a while for these reforms to be adopted by all states and for the power of political machines to wane, and it is in this period during the twilight of political machines that the 1908 election was held. The cumulative effect of these changes in the electoral system was to reduce turnout rates by placing additional burdens on prospective voters.
The Nationalization Era (1952-present) does not look much different than the current era on the surface. In a broad context, turnout rates have not changed much in the last century. Sure, at times they have fluctuated up or down depending on the election, but in the big context we’ve been in a ten percentage point range of turnout rates for the past century. What is significant about the current era is that the federal government has increasingly become more involved in the conduct of elections. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 did away with such barriers as literacy tests and empowered federal registrars to go into African-American communities in the South. Indeed, not apparent in the national numbers is a resurgence of voting among the Southern states. Other major reforms during this era include the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (aka ‘Motor Voter’) and the Help America Vote Act of 2002. One other significant reform is the lowering of voting eligibility from 21 to 18 in 1972, in most states. Since the youth have in the past voted at lower rates, about a third of the lower rates since 1968 can be attributed to this expansion of the electorate.
I think it is great that Kenya has declared tomorrow a national holiday to honor Barack Obama’s presidential victory. Obama’s father was Kenyan and Obama has four half brothers and a step grandmother who live in Kenya.
Sarah Obama, Barack Obama's Step-Grandmother, rejoices.
Speaking of Obama, the President of Kenya, Mwai Kibaki, said, “We the Kenyan people are immensely proud of your Kenyan roots….Your victory is not only an inspiration to millions of people all over the world, but it has special resonance with us here in Kenya.”
A picture gallery of Obama’s family tree can be seen here.
The BBC reported that Obama’s 86 year old step-grandmother, Sarah Obama, danced and cheered outside her home after the family pulled an Election-Day all-nighter, and that people across Kenya took to the streets to celebrate.
Obama's step grandmother, Sarah Obama is front row, second from right.
I was very impressed with John McCain’s concession speech. McCain has been putting in 18 hour days campaigning. His frantic schedule of rallies and interviews had to be exhausting. You’ve got to admire his gumption, even if, in this campaign, there was little to admire in some of his words. He put in a lot of effort. I imagine right up to the end McCain kept thinking that he could win. And now, he must be going through quite a symphony of emotion.
As senator from Arizona, McCain could give a lot of help to Obama. And, who knows? Maybe he will be just enough of a Maverick to do just that. Showing Senate leadership could be a brilliant second act for McCain, a resounding chord, a culmination of his years of public service.
In his concession speech, I appreciated that McCain said, of President Elect Barack Obama: “These are difficult times for our country, and I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face. I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together, to find the necessary compromises, to bridge our differences, and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.
“Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that.”
Taken from the NYT, Read the transcript of the entire speech below:
SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN: Thank you. Thank you, my friends. (Cheers, applause.) Thank you for coming here on this beautiful Arizona evening. (Cheers, applause.)
My friends, we have — we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly. A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Senator Barack Obama — (boos) — to congratulate him — (boos) — please — to congratulate him on being elected the next president of the country that we both love.
In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of Americans who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an American president is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving.
This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight.
I’ve always believed that America offers opportunities to all who have the industry and will to seize it. Senator Obama believes that, too. But we both recognize that though we have come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation’s reputation and denied some Americans the full blessings of American citizenship, the memory of them still had the power to wound.
A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt’s invitation of Booker T. Washington to visit — to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage in many quarters. America today is a world away from the cruel and prideful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the election of an African American to the presidency of the United States. Let there be no reason now — (cheers, applause) — let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth. (Cheers, applause.)
Senator Obama has achieved a great thing for himself and for his country. I applaud him for it, and offer in my sincere sympathy that his beloved grandmother did not live to see this day, though our faith assures us she is at rest in the presence of her creator and so very proud of the good man she helped raise.
Senator Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. No doubt many of those differences remain. These are difficult times for our country, and I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.
I urge all Americans — (applause) — I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together, to find the necessary compromises, to bridge our differences, and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.
Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that. (Cheers, applause.)
It is natural — it’s natural tonight to feel some disappointment, but tomorrow we must move beyond it and work together to get our country moving again. We fought — we fought as hard as we could.
And though we fell short, the failure is mine, not yours.
AUDIENCE: No!
MR. MCCAIN: I am so —
AUDIENCE: (Chanting.) John McCain! John McCain! John McCain! John McCain! John McCain! John McCain!
SEN. MCCAIN: I am so deeply grateful to all of you for the great honor of your support and for all you have done for me. I wish the outcome had been different, my friends. The road was a difficult one from the outset. But your support and friendship never wavered. I cannot adequately express how deeply indebted I am to you.
I am especially grateful to my wife, Cindy, my children, my dear mother — (cheers, applause) — my dear mother and all my family and to the many old and dear friends who have stood by my side through the many ups and downs of this long campaign. I have always been a fortunate man, and never more so for the love and encouragement you have given me.
Skip to next paragraph
Pop-Up Dashboard
Pop-Up Dashboard
Monitor live results all night on The Times’s Election 2008 Dashboard.
The Caucus
The Caucus
The latest news on the 2008 election from around the nation. Join the discussion.
* Election Guide | More Politics News
Interactive Your State of Mind
Enter the word that best describes your mood and follow the most popular choices from readers.
You know, campaigns are often harder on a candidate’s family than on the candidate, and that’s been true in this campaign. All I can offer in compensation is my love and gratitude, and the promise of more peaceful years ahead. (Laughter.)
I am also — I am also, of course, very thankful to Governor Sarah Palin, one of the best campaigners I have ever seen. (Cheers, applause.) One of the best campaigners I have ever seen —
AUDIENCE: (Chanting.) Sarah! Sarah!
MR. MCCAIN: — and an impressive new voice in our party for reform and the principles that have always been our greatest strength. (Cheers, applause.) Her husband Todd and their five beautiful children — (cheers, applause) — with their tireless dedication to our cause, and the courage and grace they showed in the rough-and- tumble of a presidential campaign. We can all look forward with great interest to her future service to Alaska, the Republican Party and our country. (Cheers, applause.)
To all my campaign comrades, from Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter, to every last volunteer who fought so hard and valiantly month after month in what at times seemed to be the most challenged campaign in modern times, thank you so much. A lost election will never mean more to me than the privilege of your faith and friendship.
I don’t know — I don’t know what more we could have done to try to win this election. I’ll leave that to others to determine. Every candidate makes mistakes, and I’m sure I made my share of them. But I won’t spend a moment of the future regretting what might have been.
This campaign was and will remain the great honor of my life. And my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude for the experience and to the American people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that Senator Obama and my old friend Senator Joe Biden should have the honor of leading us for the next four years.
AUDIENCE MEMBERS: No!
AUDIENCE MEMBER: You deserve more!
AUDIENCE MEMBERS: (Chanting off mike.)
MR. MCCAIN: Please. Please.
I would not — I would not be an — an American worthy of the name, should I regret a fate that has allowed me the extraordinary privilege of serving this country for a half a century. Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much. And tonight, I remain her servant. That is blessing enough for anyone and I thank the people of Arizona for it. (Cheers, applause.)
AUDIENCE: (Chanting.) USA! USA! USA! USA! USA!
SEN. MCCAIN: Tonight — tonight, more than any night, I hold in my heart nothing but love for this country and for all its citizens, whether they supported me or Senator Obama — whether they supported me or Senator Obama, I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my president.
And I call on all Americans, as I have often in this campaign, to not despair of our present difficulties but to believe always in the promise and greatness of America, because nothing is inevitable here.
Americans never quit. We never surrender. (Cheers, applause.) We never hide from history, we make history. (Cheers, applause.)
Thank you, and God bless you, and God bless America. (Cheers, applause.) Thank you all very much. (Cheers, applause.)
