I came in dead last. But 4481 voters in the Kettering School Board race voted for me. I figure I got about 30% of those voters who voted for school board candidates. 30% sounds a lot better than the 14% reported yesterday.

Yesterday I reported these results from the Kettering School Board election that show what percentage of votes cast that each candidate received. These percentage numbers are deceptively low.

JULIE ANN GILMORE 8858 votes or 27.31%
GEORGE H. BAYLESS 7577 votes or 23.36%
JIM BROWN 5811 votes or 17.92%
FRANK C. MAUS 5706 votes or 17.59%
MIKE BOCK 4481 votes or 13.82%

Julie and George have a much more solid mandate than the 27% and 23% that is indicated. I figure it is at least 57% and 48%, respectively.

Each voter was allowed to vote for as many as three candidates. If all 17,822 voters had made three choices, there would have been 53,466 votes cast. As it was only 32,433 votes were cast, so there was an under vote of 21,033 votes. An under vote happened when a voter chose zero candidates (an under vote of 3), one candidate (an under vote of 2), or two candidates (an under vote of 1).

It’s impossible to know how many voters voted for zero board of education candidates — but I think it’s safe to say the number is 10% or more. I’m going with 12% as a conservative estimate. So if 88% of the voters actually chose any school board candidate then the number of school board voters was 15,683.

These percentages are more impressive — and more accurate. They show the percentage of voters, who voted for any board candidate, who chose each candidate.

JULIE ANN GILMORE 8858 votes or 57%
GEORGE H. BAYLESS 7577 votes or 48%
JIM BROWN 5811 votes or 37%
FRANK C. MAUS 5706 votes or 36%
MIKE BOCK 4481 votes or 29%

This adds up to 207% — meaning, according to this calculation, the average voter who voted chose 2 candidates.

So, I think it is fair to say that about 30% of Kettering voters who made a choice for school board, chose me. About 3 out of 10. Not nearly enough to win, but, not bad.

In Kettering’s elections, two challengers won. Jim Brown will replace Frank Maus on the School Board and Ashley Webb will replace Frank Spolrich on the City Council.  A couple of my predictions came true — Julie Gilmore was the top vote getter for the School Board, and Amy Schrimpf was the top vote getter for the City Council.

In the Kettering School Board election, turnout at 43.3% was more than expected — 17,822 people voted, out of 41,090 possible. The top three vote getters were elected. One challenger, Jim Brown, won by a small margin — 105 votes — and will replace Frank Maus on the board. I was 1230 votes behind Mr. Brown. But, still, I can take some solace in the fact that 4481 voters wanted me to be on the board. 

I wrote here: “The best guess is that about 15,000 of Kettering’s 40,000 voters will actually vote. It may be that even if I come in dead last, I still be able to say, in the middle of an argument, things like — ‘Look, 4000 Kettering voters think I’m right.'” I would like to know who the 4481 voters are who voted for me, and I’d be interested to know why they voted for me.

I came in second in my own precinct, with 157 votes — well behind Ms Gilmore who had 191 votes.

1. JULIE ANN GILMORE 8858 votes or 27.31%
2. GEORGE H. BAYLESS 7577 votes or 23.36%
3. JIM BROWN 5811 votes or 17.92%
4. FRANK C. MAUS 5706 votes or 17.59%
5. MIKE BOCK 4481 votes or 13.82%

For the Kettering – Council-at-Large, there were 17,792 voters who participated out of 40,571 possible. (The number is smaller than the Kettering Board election, because the school district includes some precincts not in the city council’s juristiction.) The top two vote getters were elected. Ashley Webb made a strong showing, well ahead of the third place finisher, incumbent, Frank Spolrich.

1. AMY SCHRIMPF 7967 votes or 28.13%
2. ASHLEY WEBB 6504 votes or 22.96%
3. FRANK SPOLRICH 4676 votes or 16.51%
4. ED SMITH 4448 votes or 15.70%
5. DEBBIE WAKER 3611 votes or 12.75%
6. TIMOTHY MARK ALLISON 1118 votes or 3.95%

Here are the addresses of the candidates for Kettering School Board

• George H. Bayless 2422 S Patterson Blvd 45409
• Michael C. Bock 3808 LeFevre Dr. 45429
• James A. Brown 5361 Oakbend Cir. 45440
• Julie Ann Gilmore 4171 Brookdale Dr Kettering 45429
• Frank C. Maus 181 Greendale Dr Kettering 45429

Here are the addresses of the candidates for Kettering City Council

• Timothy Mark Allison 2067 Lakewood Dr Apt. A Kettering 45420
• Amy Schrimpf 4573 James Madison Trail N. Kettering 45440
• Edward M. Smith 532 Judith Dr. Kettering 45429
• Frank Spolrich 750 Ingersol Dr Kettering 45429
• Debbie Waker 4271 Maricarr Dr Kettering 45429

I’ll predict that Kettering will reject all three state issues and will approve both levies.

In Kettering this election there was strong competition in both the City Council race and in the School Board race. It’s a good sign that our democracy in Kettering may be stronger than it sometimes lets on.

W. Edwards Deming said that those thing most important cannot be measured. In our school system we are defining excellence in terms of those things we can measure. In other words, we are agreeing to a meaning of excellence that from a broader view is very trivial. I guess the first thing to realize about education in 2022, is that there has occurred a revolution in our understanding about the purpose and aim of education. There has been a revolution in what we see as indicators of excellence.

An involved citizenry would be engaged in thinking about such questions. I’m setting a big challenge for myself in thinking this through in the book I’m seeking to write — “Public Education In Kettering, Ohio In 2022.” I think it could be a topic that could attract a lot of attention and discussion and could become a focus of a Kettering group who join CitizensTogether.com. So, win or lose, I’ll have something useful to do.

I believe that the underlying premise that must guide all of our thinking concerning public education is the proposition that the key to a strong system of public education is a strong democracy. As I’ve said in my speeches, I believe that Kettering is well positioned to be a leader in public education and the fact that there is real competition in these Kettering races today, November 3, 2009, I think, is one indicator that we have hope for Kettering public education in 2022. It’s an indicator that in Kettering we have the capacity for leadership.

It’s great that in Kettering democracy seems very alive today. This thought makes me optimistic and so I am predicting that I will finish third in the Board race. Barely squeaking in is the best I can hope for and this morning I’m hoping for the best I can hope for. I guess I have enough confidence in myself that I think a vitalized democracy is to my advantage.

Julie Gilmore, I’m thinking, will come in first. And the second place then, according to my logic, must be Jim Brown. This outcome, that seems to follow as part of my squeaking in, would be huge. It would mean that two incumbents seeking reelection were, instead, turned out. It would send a big message that voters want change — a message I’ve heard from many with whom I talked.

The City Council race, this is a tough call. I think the most likely outcome is that Amy Schrimpf and Ashley Webb will win. But there is a scenario also that puts Ed Smith in and Ashley Webb out. The fact that Ed is a Democrat may be the key. I think the voters are in an ornery mood and so, my prediction for Kettering City Council is Amy Schrimpf and Ed Smith.

Kettering School Board: Gilmore, Brown, Bock
Kettering City Council: Schrimpf, Smith