The graphs below show the voting pattern in Kettering, Ohio for the 2010 election. Each graph shows the total universe of registered voters in Kettering and shows how sub-groups voted, or failed to vote.

The universe of all Kettering registered voters is divided according to six age groups (the rows in the chart) And each age group, in turn, is divided into six divisions (the columns in the chart). The six columns are: Republicans who voted, Democrats who voted, Independents who voted, Republicans who did not vote, Democrats who did not vote, and Independents who did not vote.

Here is a breakdown of those voting:

• 88% of Republicans voted — 9220 out of 10,488
• 75% of Democrats voted — 8549 out of 11,400
• 31% of Independents voted — 6096 out of 20020

In Kettering 57% of registered voters actually voted in the November, 2010 general election. What these graphs do not show is the number of eligible voters in Kettering who have never registered. Nationwide, it is estimated that 30% of eligible voters never register to vote.  In Kettering 57% of registered voters went to the polls, but I don’t have the data to calculate the turn-out rate of all eligible voters.  In Ohio, the overall turnout of eligible voters was estimated at 48%.  Here is a cloer look at two of the groups — one older, one younger

76% of Kettering registered voters age 60-69 voted:

• 93% of Kettering Republicans age 60-69 voted (1745 out of 1876 voting)
• 84% of Kettering Democrats age 60-69 voted (1796 out of 2149)
• 47% of Kettering Independent age 60-69 voted (790 out of 1674)

28% of Kettering’s registered voters age 18-30 voted:

• 65% of Republicans age 18-30 voted — 374 out of 579
• 46% of Democrats age 18-30 voted — 432 out of 943
• 21% of Independents age 18-30 voted — 1160 out of 5542

The graph shows a huge dip in registered voters from the age group 50-59 to the age group 60-69, then a big gain for the 70+ group. A better graph that showed more the age divisions — say, 20 instead of 6 — would show a more accurate representation, and smoother transitions from each age group. I’m planning on redoing thes graphs to improve them.

I am accumulating this data via a FileMaker program on my iMac, and I have all of the voting records of Montgomery County to work with. I used the iMac “Numbers” program to produce these charts and graphs.

I’m intend on making more analysis — particularly comparing the voting patterns in the 2008 election with the 2010 election. This graph below is the same data — again, the six columns together represent the total universe — 41,908 potential participants — of registered voters in Kettering.

In this You-tube video, Zach Schiller, the research director of Policy Matters Ohio, discusses Governor Kasich’s budget proposal. The organizer of the program is Dan Moulthrop, the “curator of conversation” for a northeast Ohio organization called the Civic Commons.

I’d like to know more about Civic Commons. This article says that it was initially funded with a $3 million grant from the Knight Foundation.  Moulthrop comes from a radio background —   former host of Cleveland’s WCPN 90.3 FM, “The Sound of Ideas” program.

Prior to joining Policy Matters in 2001, Schiller was a business reporter for The Plain Dealer and Business Week.  In this interview, Schiller says the Kasich budget is a plan to “Seize $2 billion over a two year period from libraries, local governments and schools.”

Schiller explains that sources of revenue long established for local communities is being eliminated in Kasich’s budget proposal.  Some of these changes go back to the 2005 Tax Reduction Act, that changed the taxation structure of business tax.  For some time, local schools and local governments were reimbursed by the state for the reduction in these taxes.  Now, the Kasich budget is eliminating these reimbursements.

One interesting point Schiller makes is that most Ohioans don’t appreciate the excellence of the state’s library system. Schiller says that Ohio has outstanding libraries — that Ohio regularly wins 30% of the awards for best libraries, with a population of 3.5% — and that part of what has made the library system great is state funding.  In Ted Strickland’s last  budget, the state reduced library funding by 23%.  Now Kasich is cutting library funding even more.

I received an interesting note from Mike Robinette, who is now involved in a new organization that I’d like to know more about, Integral Development. In his note, about the Kasich budget, Mike said:

• Local governments and schools districts are hit hard, facing nearly $2 billion less in total payments from the state in 2012 and 2013 under Gov. John Kasich’s budget proposal, according to details released shortly after noon.
• The Local Government Fund is cut by $555 million in the $120 billion, two-year budget which amounts to a 25 percent cut in the first year and a 50 percent cut in the second year. Additionally, the Kasich budget makes tax policy changes raiding a trio of reimbursement fund payments that local governments and schools receive, costing the entities roughly $1.3 billion.
• The tax changes quicken the pace of phase-outs of payments to local governments and school districts for previous changes in state policy. The changes were made during electric deregulation in 1999 and when lawmakers overhauled business taxes in the 2005 budget. That $1.3 billion is then moved into the state’s general revenue fund to pay for state government programs.
• Kasich’s budget also includes extensive privatization moves, including selling off five state prisons for $200 million and the leasing of the state’s liquor distribution network to JobsOhio, Kasich’s private development board.
• The budget proposal takes steps to prepare for the possible sale of the state turnpike, but the sale proceeds are not included in the budget.
• The main payment made by the state to school districts — known as the state’s foundation formula — goes up slightly in Kasich’s budget — 1.4 percent in 2012 and 1.3 percent in 2013.
• However, the total amount that school districts get drops by 11.5 percent in 2012, and 4.9 percent in 2013. That adds up to a drop of $3.14 billion over both years combined — a sum that includes the loss from the tax policy changes as well as the loss of federal stimulus funds used to prop up the current budget.  Library funding under Kasich’s plan drops by 5 percent each year for a total cut of $168 million over both years.
• Timber sales and oil and gas drilling on state parkland is included in Kasich’s plan and a sentencing reform piece that keeps low-level offenders out of jail is also part of the two-year spending blueprint.
• At the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, the state’s largest single agency, a $6 million pot of money for funding children’s hospitals is zeroed out.
• It isn’t immediately clear how expected Medicaid restructuring within ODJFS shakes out in Kasich’s budget, but major savings are expected to come in this area.
• The state’s Medicaid program, which serves 2.1 million low-income children, families, older adults and Ohioans with disabilities, represents roughly 30 percent of the state’s general revenue fund budget.
• Overall, the state’s “all-funds” budget is $120 billion, a drop of 5.3 percent in the first year and a 1.3 percent rise in the second year when compared with the state’s current all-funds budget. In terms of the state’s general revenue fund numbers, the budget rises by 5.1 percent in 2012 and 6.3 percent in 2013.
• The Kasich administration says in the budget proposal that it is expecting continued modest economic growth, with employment rising by 1.1 percent in 2012, and 1.3 percent in 2013. The tax policy changes that hit local governments and schools, combined with natural tax revenue growth, will mean revenues growing by 7 percent in each year of the budget.

The title of Ohio’s new budget proposal — “The Jobs Budget: Transforming Ohio for Growth” — makes the point: the whole focus of state government should be on creating jobs.

Ted Strickland's last budget had no descriptive title -- only this serene picture of the seat of Ohio government.

Governor Kasich didn’t put this budget together in the last few months. He could have put 95% of this together months before the November election. But, amazingly, the big question of how to fill Ohio’s $8 billion budget gap was never made a big focus of the election campaign.

If our democracy had any power we’d enjoy much more transparency. It makes sense, for example, that the sovereigns of the state (the citizenry) should have the opportunity to examine and discuss the budget proposals of their CEO candidates, before deciding whom to empower. If our democracy had vitality, we would have an  engaged and enlightened citizenry demanding transparency and working together to empower effective government.

A budget is a statement of philosophy about the purpose of government. Comparing proposed budgets presented by candidates for office would be a great foundation for thoughtful civic discussion. I’m thinking, in the bizzaro world of perfected democracy, Kasich would have released this 2012 budget in August, 2010 — in plenty of time for thorough discussion during the campaign — and Governor Strickland would have done the same.

I’d love to see a well thought out budget proposal with the title “The Freedom and Justice For All Budget,” that would show a progressive vision for the future.  But, in response to a Kasich “Jobs Budget,” I doubt that Strickland in 2010 would have seen a “Freedom Budget” as a winning idea. It would have been rejected as too liberal, too far out.

But, I think a strong case can be made that Strickland lost because he was not nearly liberal enough, and, if he had lifted up a more inspired progressive message, he would have brought more of his potential supporters to the polls.

A progressive vision, I believe, is built on a profound understanding of a common unity of humanity expressed in inalienable rights:  “None of us are free, if any one of us is chained. None of us are free.”

We have no unifying progressive vision and without the context of a general progressive philosophy, unfortunately, the vocal protests of teachers, firefighters and government workers to Kasich’s budget proposal are seen as protests over money.  Years ago, public workers could have counted on a vigorous private union sector to aid their protest.  But now, with the disappearance of good union jobs, we have a division, an attitude: Where were the government worker’s protests when corporate American disassembled whole industries and shipped our jobs overseas? Where was the boycott? Where was the concern for the destruction of our union jobs?

The time seems right for a renewed progressive movement that would bring diverse citizens together — based on seeing the big picture: “None of us are free —  If any one of us is chained — None of us are free.”

Governor Kasich’s Budget

• Sell five prisons for pennies on the dollar to be run by private corporations who will reduce pay and benefits for prison employees by one-third or more.
• Sell the timber and oil rights for all Ohio government land.  Give tax cuts to oil companies. Cut state oversight for utilities
• Sell 30 years of future profits — $6.8 billion — from liquor sales for $1.5 billion to fund JobsOhio, a huge slush fund for business.
• Exempt universities from a requirement that they pay union-level wages on construction projects.
• Cut funding to local government by 50%, cut funding to public education by 25%
• Empower corporate ownership and control of public education via increased numbers of charter schools and increased numbers of vouchers.
• Destroy collective bargaining rights of public employees so that local governments might recoup cuts in state income from reductions in pay and benefits to employees.
• Reduce revenue to the state from the income tax during the two year budget by $800 million and distribute that $800 million disproportionately to the wealthy — 26% to incomes in excess of $350,000. (This happened as the last 4.2% reduction of state income tax, of a total 21% reduction, from the 2005 Tax Reduction Act approved by a Republican Assembly and governor.)

Previous Posts / Dealing With Ohio’s Budget

1. Solutions To Ohio’s $8 Billion Budget Gap Should Be Focus Of Ohio Assembly Election Campaigns —  July 20th, 2010
2. Ohio’s Budget Crisis: Ohio Must Find A Way To Make Its Total Tax System More Fair, More Progressive — December 17th, 2009
3. Governor Strickland Fails To Explain Impact Of 2005 Tax Reduction Act On Ohio’s 2009 Budget Shortfall — January 28th, 2009
4. Ohio’s 2005 Tax Reduction Act Was Predicted, By 2010, To Result In Yearly State Budget Shortfall of Billions — December 15th, 2008
5. Democrat Candidates For Ohio State Assembly Fail To Challenge Republicans On Crucial Budget / Tax Issues — November 3rd, 2008
6. Twelve Tax Loopholes Ohio Should Close To Generate $270 Million Additional Revenue Each Year — October 15th, 2008
7. Ohio’s 2005 Tax Reduction Law Diminished, By 21%, The Progressivity of Ohio’s Tax Code —  August 6th, 2008