“Mr. President, by 2045 computers will be billions of times more intelligent than humans. They will have the capacity to create unlimited wealth and to create a society that needs little human labor. How will your administration help the American people prepare for this coming singularity?”

I’ve not heard much discussion so far in this presidential contest about the coming “singularity” — the time, in the near future, when computer intelligence on earth will be billions times more powerful than normal human intelligence.  Billions of times. This will be a watershed moment in human history and its impact will be beyond amazing and beyond every prediction.  Yet, it seems it is never discussed.

I’m imagining a press conference when some president in the near future is asked the above question, and he, or she, answers something like this:

Thanks for a question that deals with the big challenges of our future. Our democracy does not spend enough energy giving serious consideration to the challenges of the future.

Computer power per unit price doubles about ever 11 or 12 months. This means that computer power that today costs $1 billion, in 30 years will cost $1.  Computer power that today is worth $1 trillion, in 30 years will be worth $1000. This seems too outlandish to be true, but, we have every reason to believe that the doubling trend will continue. In the near future, we will each of us have easy access to computer power that far exceeds today’s most powerful computers.

Children growing up today will reach their peak years in a world radically different.

We are approaching a time when we will have the capacity to replace most human labor with machine labor, a time when, if we choose, humans will have multi-fold increases in leisure time and will enjoy excellent health into an extended age. A vision of a future where machine labor, “if we so choose,” could result in human worthwhile leisure time, rather than poverty for lack of a job, is a vision of a radical reordering of our society. The question is, do we so choose? How should a democratic society proceed to make plans for its best future?

Our whole economy, right now, is based upon the notion of scarcity. The contemplation of a coming singularity poses the question: Suppose there is no scarcity?  Suppose  there is only plenty?  What is the economy, what does the societal structure look like that is built on a reality of plenty?

Thinking about the possibility of a coming singularity causes us to recast our thinking about many central and complicated issues. The singularity will require that democratic societies consciously reorder much of society and such reordering will not be easy. It will require that citizens become prepared for such a task. And to prepare for this task we need a transformation in public discourse and a transformation in education at every level ….

My premise for “The Destiny Of Character” is that a city school system determines to remake its system of public education to respond to the coming singularity. The idea is that “The Destiny Of Character” is written by a super computer in 2045.

Super intelligent computers, in 2045, will, no doubt, communicate with each other via a language that compresses meaning and nuance with such detail and precision that it will be a language inaccessible to human intellect. But I’m thinking those same computers will probably have a translator function that will do its best to communicate an abbreviated and dumbed down version of the report to humans

Phillips Brooks was 30 years old in 1865 when he delivered his sermon on the death of Abraham Lincoln saying,  “The more we see of events, the less we come to believe in any fate or destiny except the destiny of character. …”  See: The Destiny Of Character Gives Hope That In Humanity’s Dark Streets Can Shine An “Everlasting Light”

Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts that by 2045 — in a mere 33 years — computers will be billions of times more intelligent than humans.  He compares this watershed time in human history to a reality of physics, a “singularity,” an event so enormous in power that it is impossible to gauge, impossible to see beyond.

The power of computer per unit cost doubles every 11 months. Thirty doublings results in more than a billion fold increase. This means that powerful computers will become the size of red blood cells. Medicine will be transformed. Transportation, energy, and the economy will be transformed. The implications of the coming Singularity are breathtaking. I’m reminded of a famous quote about quantum theory:  “If you are not astounded by this truth, then you do not understand it.” Kurzweil writes, “When people look at the implications of ongoing exponential growth, it gets harder and harder to accept…. They fall off the horse at some point because the implications are too fantastic.”

When we try to imagine the future, we simply cannot think big enough.

The coming singularity means that today’s children, well before they reach middle age, will be living in a the world stunningly different from the world they live in today. My premise, for the book I promised to write during my 2009 campaign for Kettering School Board — “Kettering Public Education In 2030” — is that, in response to their understanding of the coming singularity, a local community transforms its system of public education.

Wow. Talk about outlandish fiction. But the idea is that a vision of a fictional change process may serve an an inspiration for actual change. If I ever run for school board again, I want to present a blueprint for system transformation as a foundation for discussion.

I’m wondering if it might be fun to try to write the book as a work of science fiction, from the POV of an advanced computer writing in 2045. I sent this outline to my web-designer friend:

Project: Design a front and back cover for a new book

Title: The Destiny Of Character

Subtitle:   Kettering Public Education In 2030

Genre: Science Fiction

Possible Blurbs:

• As the singularity approaches, humanity scrambles to redefine intelligence and to redefine what it means to be educated.
• In 2045, in response to the query, “Why?” a research computer prints a report entitled, “Kettering Public Education In 2030.”
• In the future — when the best architects, engineers, designers and scientists all will be machines — human education will center on the formation and development of human character. Becoming fully human, becoming effective citizens, will become the aims of education.

I got a good chuckle at the book design I received back. It communicates the message, I guess, that in the rough seas, as our ship approaches the singularity, human destiny will be guided by passion, by instincts, by character.

• The Destiny Of Character Gives Hope That In Humanity’s Dark Streets Can Shine An “Everlasting Light”; December 24th, 2011
• As The Singularity Approaches — The Aim Of Education Must Be — Awake, Find Oil For Your Lamp, Get Ready; May 30th, 2011
• When Anna Is Nineteen: Public Education In Kettering, Ohio, In The Year 2030; May 24th, 2011
• In Order To Reform Public Education, The First Task Is To See The Big Picture; May 11th, 2011
• When Computers Are Billions Of Times More Intelligent Than Humans — What Should Be The Aims Of Education?; April 12th, 2011

The orange bar shows how many schools have the grade currently, the blue bar shows the new grading system

If the new school evaluation system outlined in Senate Bill 316 is approved, most of Ohio’s school districts will be downgraded. In Montgomery County, under the current system nine public school districts are rated “Excellent” or “Excellent with Distinction.”

With the new system, only Oakwood will receive the top grade of “A.” All other Montgomery County schools that now post banners declaring that they are “Excellent,” or “Excellent With Distinction” will be graded “B.” And Vandalia Butler, which now is judged “Excellent” will fall to a grade of “C.”

The new system is based on four components. Each component is graded “A” through “F,” with an “A” worth 4 points, and “B” worth 3 points, etc. For a district to get the “A” grade the total average must be 3.75 or above — meaning 3 “A’s” and 1 “B,” or all “A’s.”

The four components: 1) Percentage of State Indicators Met, 2) Performance Index, 3)Achievement and Graduation Gap and 4) Value-Added.