Astonishing Predictions About The Future Of Technology Should Inspire Big Changes To Schools And To Our Democracy

Posted on October 4, 2016 by Mike Bock

Ray Kurzweil writes, “The future will be far more surprising than most observers realize.” Computer speed (per unit cost) doubles every year. Kurzweil believes this doubling of machine power will continue and that in thirty years computer power will be one billion times greater than now. He is predicting that by the year 2045, a machine intelligence much greater than human intelligence will emerge. This watershed event in human history is called the singularity.

screen-shot-2016-10-03-at-9-23-36-pm

Exponential growth eventually causes dramatic and sudden change. If a full glass represent the singularity, the glass now is only one-billionth full.  Thirty doublings, over a thirty year period, will result in a billion-fold increase. The last few years will be astonishing.  The glass will be one-thirtysecondth full, then one-sixteenth full, then one-eighth full, one-fourth, one-half, then, full. This century, according to Kurzweil, will have 20,000 years of progress compared to the progress of the last century. Science fiction predictions set hundreds of years in the future will instead become reality in the lives of today’s children.

We should not delay in preparing for the huge shock we are headed toward. If there was evidence that a epoch-ending meteor was due to hit earth in thirty years, there would be a huge amount of money and effort invested to create a plan to protect the inhabitants of the earth from this potential calamity. We would be crazy to wait until the last few years to get serious about preparation.

There is plenty of evidence that the rapid growth of technology is leading to a future that may either be very good or very bad — depending on the quality of the preparation for this future. The two interconnected ways to prepare for the future both focus on:  1) Education  2) Cooperative planning. The cooperative planning and problem solving that is needed to prepare for the future requires for humans to acquire in-depth understanding and judgment. It requires an educated citizenry prepared for meaningful civic engagement. It requires a vitalization of our constitutional democracy so that our best ideas and best leaders gain authority.

To prepare for the future, we need to put money and effort into transforming our system of public education so that it will prepare a citizenry for meaningful civic engagement. The growth in machine intelligence eventually will force the public to consider these two questions: 1) How should the purpose of public education be defined? and 2) How should a system of public education be structured to most effectively accomplish that purpose?  Perceptive communities will anticipate this debate well in advance of the big crunch coming our way.

Posted in Local/Metro | 1 Comment

Ted Strickland Should Make Focus Of Campaign His Fight To Repair And Strengthen Our Constitutional Democracy

Posted on September 6, 2016 by Mike Bock

I’m a Ted Strickland fan. We are both graduates of the Asbury College. What follows is part of a letter that I recently sent to his campaign. (Below the letter is a record of my history of urging candidates to make their campaigns all about democracy.)

Ted:

The theme of your campaign is that as senator you will “fight for working people.” The problem is, the plight of working people fails to generate the fear / anger needed to motivate a lot of voters. You should consider focusing on a bigger, more comprehensive fear / anger.

We can learn a lot from Trump supporters. They seem very angry and, mostly, they are angry that the system is rigged. This anger is becoming pervasive within the citizenry — not just Trumpets. You should tap into this anger and acknowledge that yes, the system is rigged and that you have a plan how as senator you could have a big impact on making the system work better.

Trump supporters like the fact that Trump is a bully. He gets big cheers when he makes his bullying boast: “And Mexico is going to pay for it.” His bully POV is revealed in his response to what he would do if the military refused an illegal order:  “Oh they will. Believe me. They won’t refuse.”

Your opportunity is to use the Trump phenomena to discuss how fragile our constitutional democracy is and how we are in danger of losing it. You should address the fear and anger within the citizenry — that Trump supporters point to — and show that the approach of a bully will only make things worse. We need strong leadership that empowers citizens to make our constitutional democracy work as it should. Consider a message something like this:

Our constitutional democracy is broken and unless it can soon be fixed, we are in great danger. Unless it is repaired, we are headed for disaster.

The advent of Donald Trump reminds us that history demonstrates that a dangerous power vacuum is created when democracies fail to solve problems. People eventually give up on democracy and turn to strongmen to whom they give dictatorial authority.

The future will swallow our system of constitutional democracy unless it is somehow made much stronger. Unless we can make a correction, Trump is delivering the message that we will soon pay a huge price for the gerrymandering, corruption, money-soaking of our system.

How can we make our constitutional democracy stronger? Ted Strickland has a plan.  Ted will offer strong legislation dealing with campaign finance, free TV time for candidates, gerrymandering, and civics education. He will organize his senate office to be a model of  transparency, a model of citizen communication / engagement. He will use his time and budget to help strengthen civics education and citizen engagement.

To back up this message, consider developing five new sections to your website. Each of these sections should show clearly how your views contrast with Portman’s. Put a big emphasis on the federal budget — the place where planning for the future will be won or lost. Portman’s embrace of the Ryan Budget provides a big opportunity — if we can get the public to start talking about the budget.

To generate interest, consider adding a discussion forum to each section — limited to participants who use their real names and who are verified to be registered Ohio voters.

  • “Understanding the Federal Budget and the Ryan Budget Proposal”
  • “What Ohioans Agree About”
  •  “The Challenges of the Future.”
  • “Legislation To Strengthen Our Constitutional Democracy”
  • “My Promise To Constituents”

I believe in you. I’m proud of you and I’m fervently hoping for your election to the U. S. Senate. I hope these suggestions are helpful.

Sincerely,  Mike Bock  —  graduate of Asbury College in 1969

My history of urging a message concerning democracy

May 7th, 2009: Advice For Gary Leitzell And David Esrati: Make The Campaign All About Democracy, System Structure

The campaign for City Council or Mayor should not focus on which candidate is in favor of a Dayton Sportsplex or how Dayton garbage collection can be improved. We need to get the citizenry to look at the big picture. My advice is to not focus on the smaller parts and, instead, take the perspective of the big picture. In the big picture, it is obvious that our system is failing. The answer to our problems is a system answer. I’ve frequently quoted W. Edwards Deming’s big insight that 85% of quality problems in a system stem from how the system is organized — not from the individuals in the system, nor individual components in the system. (See my article, “How Can The System Known As The United States Be Made To Work To Provide “Liberty and Justice For All?“)

 

May 5th, 2010: To Defeat Congressman Turner, Dr. MacNealy Must Emphasize His Commitment To Democracy

We must remember that it is the message that is of central importance, not money. …Here is the diagnosis I would encourage Dr. Mark to make:  Our democracy is in trouble. The failure of our economy, the failure to create jobs is a system failure.  Our system of democracy is failing and we need representatives dedicated to making democracy work.

 

October 8th, 2014: Advice To Rob Klepinger: Make Your Passion For Democracy The Message Of Your Campaign

Importantly, to gain credibility you must show a plan for leadership that, if elected, you will implement. Such a plan would show, for example, how the work of congress would be made transparent and understandable. It would show a strategy to encourage public discussion and public education about matters of civic importance. Such a plan of your intentions would make a vivid contrast to the record of Turner’s behavior. In summary, here is my unsolicited advice: In these last few weeks, make your message the fact that you are passionate about democracy.

Posted in M Bock, Opinion | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

How Can The Best Future For Kettering Schools Be Defined and Accomplished?

Posted on August 14, 2016 by Mike Bock

I’m thinking there is a public in Kettering that would support and participate in an in-depth analysis concerning Kettering’s system of public education — its present state, its possible futures. My plan is to prepare an outline for a ten week study beginning in January 2017, and invite the public to participate. The general topic of the study would be: “How Can The Best Future For Kettering Schools Be Defined and Accomplished?”

These are the six aspects of this question that I’m envisioning:

  1. Make a detailed analysis of the current system of public education in Kettering in terms of program and budget. Identify the aim of the system and explain how resources are used to accomplish that aim.
  2. Make predictions of the future state of the system, based on established trends in the system.
  3. Make a detailed analysis how technology can be expected to change in the next ten and twenty years; make an analysis of how this change in technology will impact economic opportunities, and how this technology will impact systems of education.
  4. Determine what the aim of the system should be to best meet the challenges of the future.
  5. Propose a system structure that will most effectively use resources to accomplish the aim of the system.
  6. Outline a ten year process for changing the current system into the transformed system.

These study sessions would be posted on the internet and there would be structured an online discussion / forum open to participants who are part of the study.

Kettering is prosperous and stable, with many civic minded citizens. It is known for its active volunteer program and for its consistent and generous support of its local schools. For many reasons it would be an ideal community to show leadership in creating a new model of public education.

The task I am outlining for myself is to show the details of this study so that it will attract interest. These details would show who the experts / leaders in this study would be, how research on these questions would be conducted — and the financing that would be required. The goal would be to seek financial support via a crowdsourcing website like Kick-starter or Indiegogo.

This project will revisit the effort I made in 2009, when I unsuccessfully ought election to the Kettering School Board. Printed in the League of Women Voters’ Guide I wrote, “The biggest challenge for the Kettering School Board is to inspire and empower teachers and citizens to work together to define system excellence and to create a plan for long-term transformation that will result in a great future for public education in Kettering.”

My experience as a teacher in public schools (not in Kettering) left me with a compelling desire to help transform the current system of public education to something much better. Here at age 68, I’m impressed more and more that if I’m going to make the effort, it is now or never.

  • Education In 2030 is a 46 page PDF, a condensed version of previous posts, showing my POV concerning the future of public education
Posted in Local/Metro | Leave a comment