Why Do Strong Democratic Precincts Have Absurdly Weak Voter Turnout? The MCDP Central Committee Should Seek Answers

There are 62 precincts in Montgomery County that voted 80%, or more, for Richard Cordray. Unfortunately, these strong Democratic precincts had a turnout of only 43.0%. The top 62 Republican precincts, meanwhile, voted 72.1% for DeWine and had a turnout of 60.4%

The turnout gap is getting worse. In 2014, the gap in turnout between strong Democratic precincts compared to strong Republican precincts was 14.1%. In 2018, the gap increased to 17.4%. The consequence is that Democratic candidates are losing out on a lot of votes. For example, if the turnout in the top 62 Democratic precincts had matched the turnout in the top 62 Republican precincts, Richard Cordray would have had a net gain of 8330 votes. As would have Russ Joseph.

Poor voter turnout in dominant Democratic precincts is an ongoing disaster for the Democratic Party. It makes sense that in the wake of an organizational disaster, the governing body of the organization should seek to understand what happened. If a company suffers a big loss, the board of directors expects an explanation from management.

The Central Committee is the controlling body of the MCDP. It is the Committee’s obligation to address the GOTV situation and at our December 6 meeting, I will make the following motion:

Mr. Chairman, The statistics are clear that Democratic turnout in the strongest Democratic precincts in Montgomery County in this 2018 election was a disaster. We are losing elections because the turnout in these precincts is absurdly weak. If we are to achieve a better GOTV outcome in 2020, we need to understand the details of the GOTV effort that was made in 2018.

Mr. Chairman, how can we increase voter turnout in dominant Democratic precincts? This is such an important question, I believe it deserves an in-depth discussion within the Central Committee community. I believe we should not delay and that we should make preparations for a good group discussion in January. It is my motion, Mr. Chairman — and I hope you will like and support this motion — that as a foundation for an informed discussion at the January meeting, that the Central Committee urge and encourage you to email each Central Committee member a copy of your responses to these questions:

  1. What was the strategy in this election for Getting Out The Vote in strong Democratic precincts?
  2. How and to what degree was this strategy implemented?
  3. How much money did the MCDP spend on GOTV efforts? How was that money raised, and how was it spent?
  4. What is your evaluation as to the root causes of low voter turnout in strong Democratic precincts?
  5. In your judgement, what would a two-year effort look like that would address the root causes for low voter turnout in strong Democratic precincts?
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The Transformation Needed In The Democratic Party Is Starting Here In Montgomery County

The Democratic Party needs transformation — one from a political boss structure to a representative democracy structure, from rule by clique to rule by representative body, from a party of the few, to the party of the people.

Of the 60,000 Democrats in Montgomery County, only a handful have a voice in the local party organization. The MCDP has operated with a “political boss” structure stretching back to its beginnings. This structure is consistent throughout the party. For example, David Pepper, the ODP Chairperson, was chosen to be the leader of Ohio’s 1.4 million Democrats by a committee of only 148 members. Only 66 of these individuals were elected during a Democratic Primary, the other 82 are party insiders.

David Esrati writes: “The Ohio Democratic Party needs to have a housecleaning — as does the Montgomery County Democratic Party who have let our county go from Blue to Red over the last 10 years thanks to their protection of the ‘Friends and Family’ plan.”

Rather than “housecleaning,” I’d say, a better term is “house restructuring.” We need a house restructuring. The foundation for such restructuring was established in the revised MCDP Constitution approved at the June MCDP Reorganization Meeting. (The MCDP website is not up-to-date. It shows only the expired 2014 document, not the approved 2018 Constitution.) The elected delegates approved a new preamble and new statement of purpose (see below) that state three goals:

  1. Empower representative democracy within our party.
  2. Empower representative democracy throughout the county.
  3. Connect Montgomery County Democrats within an extended MCDP community where every member has a voice

To accomplish these goals will require a restructuring of the MCDP. Coming up with a plan to advance these goals should be the focus of discussion and debate in the MCDP Central Committee. The big news is that largely because of the efforts of Tim and Alison Benford, the membership of the Central Committee has had an increase of more than 70% — roughly from 130 to 225 (I don’t have the latest number) — a great influx of new energy and new ideas. There is reason to believe that the transformation needed in the Democratic Party is starting here in Montgomery County.

Proposed Changes to the MCDP Constitution

At the June, 2018 MCDP Reorganization Meeting, the first four of these proposed changes to the MCDP Constitution were approved with no debate. All of the proposed changes concerning endorsement policy (5-9) were debated and defeated.

  1. PREAMBLE: “WE THE REPRESENTATIVES of the Democrats living in Montgomery County — in order to form a strong party organization that empowers representative democracy within our party and throughout the county — do establish this Montgomery County Democratic Party Constitution.”
  2. A New Name: “The Montgomery County Democratic Party.”
  3. A New PURPOSE: In accordance with the provisions of Section 3517 of the Ohio Revised Code, this organization shall be the “Controlling Committee” of the Democratic Party of Montgomery County. The purpose of the Montgomery County Democratic Party is to represent and to serve Montgomery County Democrats. The MCDP advances this purpose: by connecting Montgomery County Democrats within an extended MCDP community where every member has a voice, by advancing candidates of the people who are dedicated to public service and whose principles align with those of the Democratic Party.
  4. An expansion of MEMBERSHIP: “The MCDP welcomes all Democrats registered in Montgomery County to become a member of the MCDP organization.”
  5. Endorsement recommendations by the Screening Committee shall be announced at least three days prior to the Central Committee meeting at which the recommendations will be acted on.
  6. Central Committee members may register their vote with the MCDP Secretary at any time during the three days prior to the Central Committee meeting.
  7. During the Central Committee meeting, any endorsement recommendations made from the floor, and seconded, will be communicated to Central Committee members not attending the meeting. Voting on these recommendations will occur via communication with the MCDP Secretary and voting will be concluded after 48 hours.
  8. The endorsement of Democratic Primary candidates shall occur after the Board of Election deadline for Democratic candidates to file for the primary.
  9. Central Committee votes on all motions for endorsements shall be by roll-call or by paper ballot with the member’s signature, or by registering the vote with the MCDP Secretary. For each endorsement, a record showing each Central Committee member’s vote shall be made available to all members of the MCDP organization.
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Democrats Should Fight A Contest We Can Win — Not One We Are Doomed To Lose

As Democrats, we should acknowledge that we can’t out-polarize the Republicans. We can’t be more divisive than they are. The battle of partisanship is not a battle we seem to be able to win. We should fight a battle we can win. We need to capitalize on our big advantage.  Our big advantage is the system itself — if it is a system that works as it should. If the system was fair — if our system of representative democracy worked to produce a government for the people — Democratic candidates would be elected in droves, Democratic policies would be enacted.

To be the party of the people, the Democratic Party must change. We now are the party of a Democratic oligarchy.  Of 1.4 Million Ohio Democrats, for example, David Pepper was chosen to be the ODP Chairperson by a committee of only 148 — only 66 elected during a Democratic Primary, the other 82 party insiders. Of the 40,000 Democrats in Montgomery County, only a handful have a voice in the local party organization. The MCDP has operated with a “political boss” structure stretching back to its beginnings.

Hopefully things are changing for the MCDP. This past June at the MCDP Reorganization Meeting several changes to the MCDP Constitution were approved that, if implemented, would mean a big change in the organization. The new MCDP Preamble says: “WE THE REPRESENTATIVES of the Democrats living in Montgomery County — in order to form a strong party organization that empowers representative democracy within our party and throughout the county — do establish this Montgomery County Democratic Party Constitution.”

Strengthening representative democracy sounds great — it is easy to talk the talk. The challenge for Democrats in Montgomery County is to transform the MCDP so that it does the following:

  1. Empowers representative democracy within our party and
  2. Empowers representative democracy throughout the county.

The MCDP Central Committee historically has simply been a rubber stamp. But, constitutionally, the Central Committee is empowered to act as a deliberative body, governed by Robert’s Rules. The Central Committee members simply need to step up to the challenge. My hope is that the influx of new members — from the efforts of Tim and Alison Benford — will be fully engaged in the Committee.

The Reorganization Meeting also approved this statement of purpose for the MCDP:

The purpose of the Montgomery County Democratic Party is to represent and to serve Montgomery County Democrats. The MCDP advances this purpose: by connecting Montgomery County Democrats within an extended MCDP community where every member has a voice, by advancing candidates of the people who are dedicated to public service and whose principles align with those of the Democratic Party.

Imagine the strength of the party if we could engage even 5% of Montgomery County Democrats — 2000 individuals — in a connected and caring community where everyone has a voice.

The Preamble to the MCDP Constitution calls not only for empowering representative democracy within the MCDP, it also calls for empowering representative democracy “throughout the county.”  Again, the Central Committee should agree to a plan.

As Democrats we must shift our understanding of the contest we are in. We are distracted when we focus on the Democratic Party winning. We need to look deeper and see that the central contest of politics today is the contest to make our system of representative democracy work as it should. The Republicans seem to realize that if the system worked as it should, the public policies they advocate would not have a chance. It’s to their advantage to aggravate polarization, to advance misinformation and to repress voting. It’s to the advantage of Democrats to do the opposite.

Democrats need to focus on the contest that is winnable. We can win the contest to be the party of the people.

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