I’m pretty sure that in its endorsement this morning, the DDN got it wrong, when it wrote, “Democrats’ best bet is Joe Roberts.”
There are three candidates vying in the July 13 Democratic Primary for the Democratic nomination to be the Party’s candidate for election to Congress for the 3rd District. The winner of the special primary will be on the November ballot, opposing the Republican incumbent, Mike Turner.
It’s hard to agree that 25 year old Joe Roberts is the Dems’ “best bet.” Roberts, through no fault of his own, obviously, is a light weight, a novice. He hardly seems ready to be running for the U.S. Congress. Who at age 25 would be? Evidently, Roberts has a degree in political science, but he is lacking in the maturity and life experience needed to relate to most voters in the 3rd District.
The fact that the DDN would choose such an unlikely candidate as Roberts for U. S. Congress as the “best bet,” indicates how weak the DDN sees the other two possible Democratic choices.
Right now, of the three choices, in my judgment, it seems the “Democrats’ best bet” is former local TV personality, 48 year old Guy Fogle. I’ve had a long conversation with Fogle, and I’m impressed with his life story, his personality, his attitude. I think he comes off as credible, responsible and likeable. Of the three Democrats seeking nomination, I think, in the general election, Fogle is the most likely to attract voters who previously have supported Mike Turner. Of the three choices, it seems likely that Fogle is the one that would be the “best bet” to give Turner the best run, and is the candidate that Turner would least prefer.
I would like to be able to go to bat for 47 year old blogger David Esrati. But David makes it difficult to do so. But, even at that, the DDN’s judgment on Esrati, I think, is too harsh and unfair: “Known for a confrontational temperament, he (Esrati) is unsuited to public office, better suited to gadfly status.”
David, I feel, is suited for public office, and if elected, would do a good job. But it seems highly unlikely that he could ever be elected. The letter of recommendation from the “Ice Bandit,” that David chose to print in the DDN, I fear, shows David’s bent toward acrimony, and acrimony in no way could be part of a winning strategy. The “Ice Bandit” paints David as a super hero type of figure. His recommendation says, “As a former Special Forces paratrooper, Esrati knows freedom will always be under assault. This is the metal from which David Esrati was forged.” I feel this emphasis is impossible to make a winning strategy.
If he wins the nomination, Roberts’ youth and inexperience will be an issue. It seems likely that the average voter will not think Roberts is ready to be a congressman. In order to gain support, Roberts would need to show an extraordinary campaign with excellent and provocative ideas for how he would conduct himself as a congressman. He would need to surround himself with a group of solid and capable advisers. But, even if he could pull such a campaign off, his youth would still remain a big distraction.
I’m impressed with Roberts’ web-site, but it seems unlikely that Roberts will have the capacity to form himself and his campaign sufficiently to be a credible candidate. I feel it is unlikely that he will be seen as a serious candidate and unlikely he will articulate a winning strategy. But, I am withholding judgment. The debate tomorrow, June 30, at the Democratic Headquarters, I’m hoping, will clarify a lot of questions.
Guy Fogle, I think, has the people skills, the personality, the speaking skills, needed to be an effective candidate. He has a life story that gives him the capacity for empathy to understand the plight of many in the 3rd District. See: Guy Fogle’s Life Story — Overcoming Adversity Of Cancer, Bankruptcy — Might Help Him Gain Votes
Right now, I’m thinking I will vote for Guy Fogle. He seems to me the “best bet” to appeal to voters in the 3rd District who are looking for an alternative to Mike Turner. It seems to me, he would have the potential to draw more voters to his candidacy than either Esrati or Roberts could draw. And, if elected, I have confidence that Fogle would be a responsible congressman who would much more effectively represent interests of voters in the 3rd District than Mike Turner has ever done.
i find it troubling that you mention absolutely nothing about issues in this entire post.
I can’t tell that there are issues that divide the three candidates, but after tomorrow’s debate, I should know more. The issue most important for Democratic voters, in judging which of the three to vote for, is which of the three has the best chance against Turner.
then why not reserve judgment until you know more about the candidates’ views?
The DDN detailed some of their views and, it seems unlikely, that with even a more in-depth understanding, that there would be revealed much difference between the three of them concerning issues. The importance of the small differences in the views of issues between the three Democratic candidates pales in importance to the huge difference each has with the voting record of incumbent Republican Mike Turner. So, the real issue Democrats must consider is the issue of who of the three is the most electable.
@Mike Bock-
Roberts doesn’t have a degree.
Fogel didn’t know what a Blue Dog Dem was- but he thinks he may be one.
You can listen to the whole interview on my site:
http://esrati.com/ddn-picks-the-sacrificial-lamb/5195/
While they hardly asked questions of substance- you can get a feel for what you’re dealing with.
None of us stands a real chance in OH-3 the way it is drawn- the late start- and the money that Turner has.
The first ad that Turner runs about Fogel’s lack of paying child support- and that he works as a greenskeeper at Moraine Country Club will be painful.
As to Roberts- what has he done?
Isn’t that the general qualification for a job?
I’m flabbergasted that you still don’t understand how the system works. I don’t need to be nice to the DDN board-
I also don’t need to be nice to NCR, GM or Proctor & Gamble like Mike Turner has been all these years….
You want someone to damage Mike Turner for the next round-
send a fighter.
I’m the only candidate who has beaten him- unless you want to try to run Rhine McLin?
And btw Mr. Bock- just a few days ago you submitted an endorsement letter for me-
http://esrati.com/back-to-life-need-your-help/5175/#comment-70492
2nd version no less.
It would help if you make up your mind.
And- btw- if you think any of us are electable, unless Turner gets caught with a hooker or something- you must believe you can win the lottery with a single buck.
that sort of attitude certainly won’t help you get people behind you. Hey! Support me! It’s a lost cause!
David, it is unlikely you can win the lottery with a single buck, but, at least it is theoretically possible to do so. Yes, it is unlikely that a Democratic candidate could win the 3rd District, but I want to support a candidate who can possibly win, someone who is electable.
The endorsement letter I offered to you, had you accepted it, and the message it communicated, I feel, would have made you more electable. But, you rejected the letter, and its message, and, instead, chose an anonymously written letter praising your warrior credentials. So, I respect that you are an independent thinker and I respect that you are determined to follow your own instincts, but your choices and your words make it clear that your priority, if you win the nomination, would not be in creating a message or campaign that might make you electable. Instead, you are clear that you would seek to present yourself as a “fighter,” one who would work to, “damage Mike Turner for the next round.”
Your limited motive of damaging Turner “for the next round” does not require that you be the Democratic candidate. The 3rd District needs rabble rousers who will fire up the crowd, so, more power to you, there is a lot to rouse about — as I wrote two years ago: Mike Turner Is A Bum, For Our Democracy’s Sake, Let’s Throw The Bum Out. But, being a fighter who challenges Turner does not require your being the official candidate of the Democratic Party.
I find agreement with you on many of your points of view and I wish you well as you develop an even stronger independent voice on the web and here in the Dayton community. But, as I said, I want to support a Democratic candidate for the 3rd District who I feel is electable, even if the chance to replace Turner is slim.
after last night’s debate, i’m not entirely decided, but i’m leaning towards guy fogle. roberts seems to be a straight dem party man and will just be a puppet and esrati REALLY turned me off with his racist comments about afghanis (“they’re used to living in caves, they don’t need schools” etc). fogle’s perspective of having been hit directly by the recession, housing crisis and our crappy health care system means that at least he has some first-hand knowledge of many things that need to be fixed though i wasn’t convinced that he has a powerful grasp of specific policy.
@Mike Bock-
Conventional campaigns, at the last minute- will never beat Mike Turner. We’ve seen better funded- and conventional candidates get beat like a rug.
Guy Fogle is a nice guy-
but- listen to the interview in the DDN-
http://esrati.com/ddn-picks-the-sacrificial-lamb/5195/
You heard the debate as well.
The reality is- Ice Bandit keyed in on the things that the DDN couldn’t deny- they hate me, and that I’ve beaten Mike Turner before, and that I’m a veteran- a fact THAT NEVER MAKES IT IN THEIR PAPER.
You are entitled to vote any way you want-
but, I don’t think too many Congressmen have been elected who are in arrears in their child support. Guy isn’t afraid to talk about it- but, it’s not looked well upon.