In Montgomery County, Improving Voter Turnout In Strong Democratic Precincts Is Huge Challenge For MCDP

Low voter turn-out in strong Democratic precincts is an on-going challenge for the Montgomery County Democratic Party. The graph shows the percentage voter turnout in the Top 75 Democratic Precincts, the Top 75 Republican Districts, and the county as a whole for the 2012, 2016 and the 2014 elections. In each election, the 75 Top Dem precincts performed below the top 75 GOP precincts and below the Countywide average as well.

Of Montgomery County’s 360 precincts, I’ve identified the 75 precincts that had the highest percentage voting for Hillary Clinton. On average 90.8 % of votes in these precincts went to Hillary and the individual precincts ranged from an amazing 97.3% voting for Clinton to 75.9% voting for Clinton. Together these 75 precincts delivered 38,289 votes to the Democratic ticket.

I’ve also identified the 75 precincts that had the highest percentage voting for Donald Trump. On average 72.7% of votes in these precincts went to Trump and the range in individual precincts was from 83.7% for Trump to 67.2% for Trump. Together these top 75 precincts Republican precincts delivered 55,809 votes to Trump.

The Democratic turn-out in the top 75 Democratic precincts decreased from 66.5% in 2012 to 60.8% in 2016. This 5.7% decrease amounted to a gift to Trump of 3260 votes. This is painful to acknowledge, because Trump carried Montgomery County by 1,993 votes. If these 75 top Dem precincts had matched the average turn-out for the entire county, these 75 precincts would have produced an additional 5534 votes for Hillary.

Improving Democratic turn-out is a huge challenge for the MCDP. An equal challenge is to shore up Democratic votes in off years. There is always more voters at a presidential contest, rather than a governor’s contest. The top 75 Democratic Precincts crashed from a turn-out for Obama in 2012 of 66.5% to a turn-out in 2014 of 31.3%.

For the top 75 Dem precincts the decrease from 2012 to 2014 was 53.0%.

For the top 75 GOP precincts the decrease was 40.8%.

For the County as a whole decrease was 43.5%


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