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In Montgomery County, Democrats Lose The Contest To Get Out The Vote

Lots of competition to Get Out The Vote and in this election every precinct in Montgomery County showed an increase in voter turn-out compared to 2014, the last election for governor. The average increase in voter turn-out in the county, compared to 2014, was 13.6%. This increase, however, was not shared equally between Republican and Democratic precincts. Republican precincts — that already, historically, have a bigger turn-out than Democratic precincts — got a lion’s share of the increase.

For each precinct, I calculated the difference between the 2018 turn-out and the 2014 turn-out. The 180 precincts with the biggest improvements in turn-out voted 47.18% for Richard Cordray. The 180 precincts that had the lowest improvement in turn-out voted 54.7% for Cordray.  The precincts with the most improved turn-out tended Republican, the precincts with the poorest improvement of turn-out tended Democratic.

  • There were 133 precincts, out of 360, that voted for Richard Cordray, with a combined vote of 74.1% for Cordray. Those Cordray precincts showed a turn-out of 46.4% (a 12.6% increase over 2014)
  • There were 227 precincts that voted for Mike DeWine with a combined vote of 62.5% for DeWine. These Dewine precincts had turn-out of 57.7% (a 14.2% increase over 2014)

Comparing the top 18 Republican precincts to the top 40 Republican precincts, this chart shows that the more partisan that Republican precincts become, the more that turn-out increases. The opposite is true for the Democrats. The top 18 Democratic precincts, have a decrease in turn-out compared to the top 40 Democratic precincts.

  • The top 40 Democratic precincts voted 92.8% for Cordray — with a turn-out of 44.1% (a 13.2% increase compared to 2014))
  • The top 40 Republican precincts voted 74.3% for Dewine — with a turn-out of 60.7% (a 14.5% increase compared to 2014)

 

  • The top 18 Democratic precincts voted 92.9% for Cordray, but had a turn-out of only 35.6% (an 11.1% increase from 2014)
  • The top 18 Republican precincts voted 78.4 for DeWine and had a turn-out of 60.5% (a 12.4% increase from 2014)
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